Perhaps the surest method for exposing the flaws in a proposition is to assume its truth. So let us assume that what environmentalism preaches is true, namely that human activity contributes too much carbon dioxide to the amounts already flooding into the atmosphere "naturally"1; that our carbon dioxide indeed causes global warming; and that government is therefore justified in dictating the types and amounts of energy we use in our daily lives. How much atmospheric carbon dioxide, then, constitutes an acceptable amount? No credible source proposes outlawing our entire contribution; the U.N. Kyoto Protocol (discussed below) aims to take us back to the approximate emissions levels of 1990. But there’s the rub: the 1990 emissions themselves were once portrayed by the U.N. as excessive,2 meaning that full Kyoto compliance would see us continuing to pump supposedly toxic amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and imperiling the environment – only this time, at the price of our liberty as well.
Let us concede even more ground by assuming that Kyoto is only a “first step,” meaning that government – in all its disinterested and selfless wisdom – knows exactly how much carbon dioxide the Earth can tolerate from us and will implement policies that target the proper output. What then, pray tell, is the correct temperature that we should nurse the Earth back to? We know that the Earth was both far cooler and far warmer in the past, long before mankind graduated into the industrial age: the most recent Ice Age ended 10,000 years ago, and global temperatures some 6,000 years ago (the “Holocene Maximum”) were higher than they are today. Temperatures were also higher during the Medieval Warming Period from roughly A.D. 1000 to 1300, again long before the Industrial Revolution. Last but not least, temperatures tended to oscillate up and down much more rapidly before civilization even developed, and we have occupied an unusually stable interlude in the Earth’s temperature. So just where do we set the global thermostat? How do we know when our “harmful” influence is fully remedied, given that a “healthy” Earth will continue to experience drastic climate changes all its own? It appears that there is no end in sight, somewhat similar to the United States’ unending crusade of affirmative action – racial disparities and climate anomalies are twin facts of life that will never disappear, thus perpetually justifying governmental interference to “fix the problem.” For example, environmentalist prophet Al Gore seized on the deadly Myanmar cyclone as proof of his religion, while like-minded others have gone so far as to blame everything from kidney stones to shark attacks on mankind’s environmental sins as well. Just as primitive peoples might conduct human sacrifice upon the occurrence of a solar eclipse, the high priests of modernity will re-enact that sorry spectacle on a massive scale during every environmental novelty that befuddles the public mind.
Let us disregard all these qualms and assume that: 1) mankind introduces too much carbon dioxide into the environment; 2) mankind’s carbon dioxide is to blame for excessive global warming; 3) government can calculate how much carbon dioxide the Earth can tolerate; 4) government can calculate the “natural” global temperature; and 5) any “natural” changes in climate will honestly and successfully be distinguished from changes that mankind has caused. Even yielding each one of these very dubious points fails to produce the environmentalist conclusion that governmental interference will rescue us from the brink of destruction. Only wealthy countries are capable of adopting “green” policies, since the wealthy can best afford to humor environmentalist agitation; people in poor countries are more preoccupied with daily survival than with the atmosphere, often making their treatment of the environment far worse. The Kyoto Protocol itself acknowledges this by imposing its most onerous obligations on the nations that can best afford them. Rather than safeguard and spread the free-market principles underlying this wealth, environmentalists propose quite the opposite: to cripple the engine of wealth where it exists. Private property, freedom of contract, and profit motive all make environmentalism possible, yet environmentalism has declared war on its parents and seeks to curtail or abolish them. Bolivia’s president, Evo Morales, proudly admitted this fact when agitating at a U.N. conference concerning biofuels:3 “If we want to save our planet Earth, we have a duty to put an end to the capitalist system.” An honest effort to remedy the supposed menace of man-made global warming would reject this noxious ideology of central planning as a proven failure at generating the wealth and technology needed to accomplish environmentalism’s own ambitious program. Since environmentalism’s methods are self-defeating, they hardly merit serious consideration.
One final concession drives the point home: even if mankind’s technological progress is somehow shortening the Earth’s hospitable lifespan, mankind represents the only hope of transporting life away from this mortal planet that will eventually be scorched and/or swallowed as the Sun balloons into a red giant. Even long before that inevitable demise takes place, we face the high probability of an asteroid impact that will terminate human life and much of the sacred biodiversity. To the extent that environmentalists succeed in hobbling mankind’s progress with their schoolboy socialism, they will have condemned to death what they claim to hold dear, and Earth’s life will remain trapped to perish as if it never were. One can honestly say that mankind represents the Earth’s seeds, and that mankind is very much part of nature’s effort to spread life as far and wide as possible. From this macro-perspective, environmentalists represent nature's deadliest foes.
_______________________________________
Let us concede even more ground by assuming that Kyoto is only a “first step,” meaning that government – in all its disinterested and selfless wisdom – knows exactly how much carbon dioxide the Earth can tolerate from us and will implement policies that target the proper output. What then, pray tell, is the correct temperature that we should nurse the Earth back to? We know that the Earth was both far cooler and far warmer in the past, long before mankind graduated into the industrial age: the most recent Ice Age ended 10,000 years ago, and global temperatures some 6,000 years ago (the “Holocene Maximum”) were higher than they are today. Temperatures were also higher during the Medieval Warming Period from roughly A.D. 1000 to 1300, again long before the Industrial Revolution. Last but not least, temperatures tended to oscillate up and down much more rapidly before civilization even developed, and we have occupied an unusually stable interlude in the Earth’s temperature. So just where do we set the global thermostat? How do we know when our “harmful” influence is fully remedied, given that a “healthy” Earth will continue to experience drastic climate changes all its own? It appears that there is no end in sight, somewhat similar to the United States’ unending crusade of affirmative action – racial disparities and climate anomalies are twin facts of life that will never disappear, thus perpetually justifying governmental interference to “fix the problem.” For example, environmentalist prophet Al Gore seized on the deadly Myanmar cyclone as proof of his religion, while like-minded others have gone so far as to blame everything from kidney stones to shark attacks on mankind’s environmental sins as well. Just as primitive peoples might conduct human sacrifice upon the occurrence of a solar eclipse, the high priests of modernity will re-enact that sorry spectacle on a massive scale during every environmental novelty that befuddles the public mind.
Let us disregard all these qualms and assume that: 1) mankind introduces too much carbon dioxide into the environment; 2) mankind’s carbon dioxide is to blame for excessive global warming; 3) government can calculate how much carbon dioxide the Earth can tolerate; 4) government can calculate the “natural” global temperature; and 5) any “natural” changes in climate will honestly and successfully be distinguished from changes that mankind has caused. Even yielding each one of these very dubious points fails to produce the environmentalist conclusion that governmental interference will rescue us from the brink of destruction. Only wealthy countries are capable of adopting “green” policies, since the wealthy can best afford to humor environmentalist agitation; people in poor countries are more preoccupied with daily survival than with the atmosphere, often making their treatment of the environment far worse. The Kyoto Protocol itself acknowledges this by imposing its most onerous obligations on the nations that can best afford them. Rather than safeguard and spread the free-market principles underlying this wealth, environmentalists propose quite the opposite: to cripple the engine of wealth where it exists. Private property, freedom of contract, and profit motive all make environmentalism possible, yet environmentalism has declared war on its parents and seeks to curtail or abolish them. Bolivia’s president, Evo Morales, proudly admitted this fact when agitating at a U.N. conference concerning biofuels:3 “If we want to save our planet Earth, we have a duty to put an end to the capitalist system.” An honest effort to remedy the supposed menace of man-made global warming would reject this noxious ideology of central planning as a proven failure at generating the wealth and technology needed to accomplish environmentalism’s own ambitious program. Since environmentalism’s methods are self-defeating, they hardly merit serious consideration.
One final concession drives the point home: even if mankind’s technological progress is somehow shortening the Earth’s hospitable lifespan, mankind represents the only hope of transporting life away from this mortal planet that will eventually be scorched and/or swallowed as the Sun balloons into a red giant. Even long before that inevitable demise takes place, we face the high probability of an asteroid impact that will terminate human life and much of the sacred biodiversity. To the extent that environmentalists succeed in hobbling mankind’s progress with their schoolboy socialism, they will have condemned to death what they claim to hold dear, and Earth’s life will remain trapped to perish as if it never were. One can honestly say that mankind represents the Earth’s seeds, and that mankind is very much part of nature’s effort to spread life as far and wide as possible. From this macro-perspective, environmentalists represent nature's deadliest foes.
_______________________________________
1. I place this word in quotes because of ongoing philosophical confusion over what constitutes “natural” versus “unnatural.” On the one hand, environmentalists tend to claim that mankind is merely a part of nature and has no unique status or rights over anything else on planet Earth. On the other hand, environmentalists tend to claim that mankind is somehow outside nature and has a unique responsibility to avoid influencing the environment in any noticeable way, even if it falls far short of the cataclysms and extinctions that preceded mankind’s appearance.
2. In 1990 the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (“IPCC”) issued its first major report, which concluded that man-made carbon dioxide had caused the previous century’s warming trend, and which recommended drastic cuts in existing carbon-dioxide emissions.
3. The biofuels saga presents its own tragicomedy of modern man’s undoing: governments take our money in order to finance a food-based fuel source (e.g., ethanol) that we have not chosen to finance on our own, driving up the price of food to the point that poor people find it harder than ever to subsist. Man freely and peacefully transitioned from whale blubber to kerosene to petroleum as fuel sources, and there is no reason that the free market cannot also encourage the next transition whenever the scarcity of petroleum drives up its price and makes alternative fuels profitable.
2. In 1990 the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (“IPCC”) issued its first major report, which concluded that man-made carbon dioxide had caused the previous century’s warming trend, and which recommended drastic cuts in existing carbon-dioxide emissions.
3. The biofuels saga presents its own tragicomedy of modern man’s undoing: governments take our money in order to finance a food-based fuel source (e.g., ethanol) that we have not chosen to finance on our own, driving up the price of food to the point that poor people find it harder than ever to subsist. Man freely and peacefully transitioned from whale blubber to kerosene to petroleum as fuel sources, and there is no reason that the free market cannot also encourage the next transition whenever the scarcity of petroleum drives up its price and makes alternative fuels profitable.
The fallacies put forward by this analysis further demonstrates the refusal for the scientifically lay person to attempt to understand peer reviewed scientific analyses. I suggest that anyone who wants to develop an understanding of what constitutes the scientific realm of “climate change,” to begin by reviewing the following website: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/start-here/
ReplyDeleteTo simply dismiss the fundamentals of the analyses that present a scientifically compelling demonstration of how unregulated human behavior can adversely impact the environment is a fool’s folly. Similarly, the chasm among politicians in dealing with these phenomena is no reason to dismiss the validity of the research. Rather, the cited treaties and actions are further examples of how the scientific illiterate attempt to manipulate findings to serve their own agenda.
What I find most humorous in the anti-climate change argument is that much of it is based on a white paper by two Canadian economists whose model is fraught with many errors and has been discredited in a peer reviewed setting. However, Michael Mann’s and others analyses are widely available on the Internet (both data and model), been peer reviewed throughout the world, and comply with the scientific method. If it can be scientifically demonstrated that climate change is indeed a naturally occurring phenomena in which mankind has little or no impact, then I am certain that the scientific community would welcome such complete research. If, however, such findings cannot be developed, then I ask a simple question: is it not better to err on the side of scientific founded caution? If such attitudes were not taken by both government and industry (e.g. safety regulations governing air travel ranging from the building of aircraft to the take-off separation distance between aircraft), then the economic and physical harm to society would be immeasurable.
I'm talking praxeology -- even if anthropogenic global warming is taken as true, it doesn't support the political diatribe accompanying it. I have conceded in this section that Michael Mann and everyone else on his side of the fence is correct. Even that concession does not tell us what temperature the Earth "should" be (it's been a lot hotter and colder in the past), and it certainly does not justify enslaving the human race to fit a computer program.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to fast-forward into empiricism, take a gander at the latest SCIENTIFIC research that shows global warming ceased in 1997: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html
Perhaps Mann can cook up another computer program to smother these data, just as he smothered the Medieval Warming Period. I'm sure he and other "scientists" will be paid handsomely to generate the desired conclusion. If you believe that scientific research that is bought and paid for by government funds will yield anything other than a desired conclusion, pass whatever it is you're smoking.
Referencing any scientific finding from the Daily Mail is like using the National Enquirer as a source of news. While I could not find the publication referenced in the presented Daily Mail article from the Met Office, which is linked by the Drudge Report, I did find the following links on the Met Office website:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/2011-global-temperature
29 November 2011 — This year is set to be the 11th warmest in a record spanning more than 150 years, according to climate scientists from the Met Office and the University of East Anglia.
The global average temperature from HadCRUT3 for January to October 2011 was 14.36°C, 0.36°C above the 1961-1990 long term average.
The latest figures from the HadCRUT3 record supports those already published by NOAA and NASA GISS which are all run independently.
2011's placing near the top of temperature datasets which go back to 1850 continues a long-term warming trend in global climate.
...
"However, global temperature so far this year is likely higher than it was during the La NiƱa events in 2008 and 1999-2000 - indicating a continuing warming trend combined with natural variability."
Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, said that due to natural variability we do not expect to see each year warmer than the last, but the long-term trend is clear.
"The HadCRUT3 record, supported by the other records, is one indicator amongst several which provide overwhelming evidence that the climate has warmed," he said.
...
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/solar-output-research
23 January 2012 - New research has found that solar output is likely to reduce over the next 90 years but that will not substantially delay expected increases in global temperatures caused by greenhouse gases.
Carried out by the Met Office and the University of Reading, the study establishes the most likely changes in the Sun's activity and looks at how this could affect near-surface temperatures on Earth.
...
As a continuation of my last post, nothing is more disingenuous than supposed news sources providing references without explicit citations, and using this methodology to attribute false information to the referenced source. The authors of the Daily Mail article that you and Drudge reference did just that. This behavior is yet another example of how entities can abuse the Internet to put forward an agenda; both ends of the political spectrum have participants that are guilty of this poor behavior. As a practicing engineer, an applied scientist, I always find multiple citations to either justify or disprove a theory.
ReplyDeleteWith regard to government monies influencing research, such a statement reflects the ethics of an individual and should not be presented as truth against every individual who receives or has received such funding. Having had the good fortune of receiving funding from multiple federal grants throughout my academic and professional career, I can state with 100% certainty that I never allowed my funding source to influence my findings and publications. I can make similar attributions to my colleagues at various academic institutions and within industry. Such sweeping statements impugning an individual’s ethics with regard to research and funding is a mere ad hominem attack to demean the credibility of those individuals and their findings because they differ from your belief.
Of course. Any data that do not fit the template are rejected. The Puritans at Salem had nothing on us.
ReplyDeleteAnd you're still ducking my point -- even if AGW is taken as true, the political diatribe founded on it makes no sense. The Earth has been far warmer and far cooler. The atmosphere has displayed several orders of magnitude more CO2 than it does now. These things happened while life was abundant. To argue that man's infinitesimal influence on the environment is somehow worse than the environment's monumental influence on itself can stem only from self-hatred. It's a green version of original sin, and it's not nearly as compelling (or even believable) as the Christian version.
The Earth has a finite lifespan. You propose that it's better to prolong that lifespan for a few blinks of cosmic time at the price of human liberty and dignity. I find the proposal an abomination, a sacrifice of what is transcendent to what is transient. At least socialism and fascism sought to sacrifice some humans for others; environmentalism seeks to sacrifice humans for snail darters.
I must pause to mention that I enjoy arguing with you. American culture has become almost Confucian in its insistence on social harmony and nodding our heads in unison rather than arguing over important questions. It's settled. I'm paying a visit to Charlottesville in 2012 so we can keep arguing over a bottle of red; if memory serves, there are some good vineyards around there. I remember the wine tastings during law school.
ReplyDeleteI am not “ducking” your point; I noted in my first post that both ends of the political spectrum are misusing climate change for their own ends. I have spent my previous posts demonstrating the scientific illiteracy promoted by climate change deniers. Furthermore, I agree that the earth is a living entity.
ReplyDeleteWe as humans are but one organism within the fragile ecosystem. Since we are the most evolved entity (this conclusion can be left for another debate), it does not give us the right to damage and destroy the environment; but rather, we should attempt to preserve and improve the environment. As the caretakers of the earth, where is it bestowed upon us the rights to use, damage, destroy and discard our environment during our lifetime with no care for future generations? To use the argument that the earth has a finite lifespan to allow the wanton expansion of greenhouse gasses and other environmentally unsound activities (e.g. fracking and strip mining) not only adversely impacts current generation, but future ones as well. No one can prognosticate as to what future generations will invent to allow the continuation of life, so to cavalierly dismiss the environment today, along the belief that the earth is ultimately a dying sphere, is ill-conceived, illogical, and a selfish tragedy.
And yes, a bottle of red would serve us nicely ;-)
My final comment on this thread. While we disagree philosophically about many topics (or more correctly, the best path to get an end state), I dare say that our discussion rise to the level of “arguing.” Rather, we have engaging conversations in which we both respect the others opinion and factual support, and wecontinuously try to influence the other to a more enlightened state.
ReplyDeleteWhatever humanity does to Earth is nothing compared to what nature has done and will continue to do to it, whether it's asteroids that cause another mass extinction, ice ages, massive amounts of carbon dioxide flooding the atmosphere (as in the dinosaur era), and yes, the Sun that will eventually cook and swallow it. Human liberty is the LEAST of the planet's worries. To destroy human liberty in the name of saving the planet makes no sense -- unless the goal is something else, which it most certainly is.
ReplyDeleteEnvironmentalism is not about the planet, no more than invading the world is about stopping terrorism, and no more than socialism was a way station to the stateless paradise of communism. These are all poetic lies meant to numb the masses into slavery. And the masses, now stripped of transcendence, eagerly latch onto the mundane narrative to give their empty lives meaning. That is the real tragedy here -- the stripping of the human soul, not the stripping of mines or the draining of swamps. And the irony is that by hobbling humanity this way, environmentalists lose according to their own materialist metric, since they guarantee that we never escape Earth and that life here indeed is snuffed out forever. You are your own worst enemy.
As to your second (and allegedly final) message: it is I who am trying to influence you to a more enlightened state. ;-)