Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

As an attorney I must grapple with argument fallacies every day, and I am strongly tempted to print out and staple a good collection of them to my next legal brief.  But there is one fallacy in particular that follows me wherever I go, whether it's reading the news or overhearing a barroom debate: "post hoc ergo propter hoc," which means "after this, because of this."  Another version is "cum hoc ergo propter hoc" ("with this, because of this"), but they both boil down to the erroneous equation of correlation with causation.  Here are just a few that plague modern discourse:

• People who attend college tend to earn more money over the course of their lives, so if we cram as many people into college as possible, they will earn more as well.

• Bill Clinton urged an increase in income taxes whereas George W. Bush urged a decrease in income taxes.  Since the economy was vigorous in the '90s but tanked in the '00s, tax increases are good for the economy.

• On a related note, the Great Depression ended with World War II, so war is good for the economy.

• Homeowners are healthier, happier, and have families that are more stable, so we should help anyone who can fog a mirror get a house to improve everyone's lives.

• Winters aren't as cold or snowy as they were when I was a kid, so Al Gore must be right about anthropogenic global warming.

• Government investment played a critical role in creating the Internet, so government should remain active in promoting scientific achievement.

• Countries such as Sweden and Canada have massive welfare states yet have not suffered economic meltdowns, so there is no reason not to augment the welfare state in America.

Granted, these fallacies straddle other ones such as non sequitur (it does not follow), but the correlation/causation fallacy is apparent.  If any of you out there in computer land are wondering what is mistaken about the above bullet points, I urge you to read and think critically on your own rather than purchase your ideas off the shelf -- I will not provide a crib sheet to explain just how asinine the above assertions truly are.  Although most of us no longer grow our own food, we should not lapse into the habit of letting other people grow our thoughts.   

On the other hand, maybe I'm just tilting at windmills here.  This sort of magical thinking has become so deeply embedded that it's useless to try to root it out.  Well, two can play at that game.  Here are some propositions of my own that many of you will surely denounce, as follows:

• The rates of illiteracy, illegitimacy, crime, and homicide in the African-American community have skyrocketed since Lyndon Johnson launched the Great Society, so the welfare state is toxic to African-Americans and needs to be reconsidered.

• Jurisdictions with stricter gun laws have much higher gun violence, so the remedy for gun violence is to arm more people and thus deter criminals. 

• Ever since suffrage became universal, the federal government's power has grown vastly beyond the Constitution's limits, money has been forcibly redistributed to those who did not earn it, regulations have proliferated beyond imagination, the deficit and national debt have skyrocketed, America faces economic ruin, and voters have shown a stronger proclivity for security over liberty (though now losing both).  Perhaps we need to reconsider whether suffrage is truly a "right" or, as my ancestors understood, a privilege to be exercised only by those who demonstrate sufficient knowledge and responsibility.

• Ever since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the dollar has lost 99% of its value.  To strengthen the dollar and the economy, we should terminate the Fed and allow interest rates to float freely in the marketplace.

• As more and more people from around the world flood into America, America is losing those qualities that once made it unique, free, and prosperous.  We thus need a moratorium on immigration for at least two generations so that we can salvage what we (and world history) are about to irretrievably lose.  We also need a vigorous program of identification, location, and deportation of all persons here illegally.  There is historical precedent for both (e.g., the Immigration Act of 1924, and Eisenhower's Operation Wetback).